A mistake many investors make is that the longest time frame they will look at when it comes to technical analysis is the daily chart. However this chart doesn't always tell the whole story and in a lot of cases it's a lot more profitable to invest in shares based on what the weekly or monthly charts are saying. One of the best set of indicators you can use are the exponential moving averages. I personally like to plot the 5, 20, 50 and 200 period EMAs on my charts because they are extremely useful indicators. They work well on the daily charts but they are even more dependable on the weekly or monthly charts. The key is to look for important EMA crossovers for a change in trend. After you get one of these crossovers you will often see the price continue to move in this direction for several weeks or months before it reverses and crosses in the opposite direction. In the meantime you can bank some significant profits. You can use the EMA (20) crossing the EMA (50) as a good signal but I personally prefer using the EMA (5) crossing the EMA (20) as my preferred signal. As I say this works well on the daily chart alone but when you increase the time frame, you get far bigger price moves. In fact sometimes you can catch a trend that lasts several years and creates substantial profits. You can also use the downwards crossover as either a sell signal or as an opportunity to go short of a stock. For instance if you look at the monthly chart of any of the banks, let's take Royal Bank of Scotland as an example, you will see that the EMA (5) crossed downwards through the EMA (20) in July 2007 and still hasn't crossed back upwards. In this time the share price has fallen from around 600p to just 20p. So obviously a very profitable long-term short position and it's the same with many other companies, not just the banks. If you look at the daily charts, however, you will see that there are a lot more crossovers using the same period EMAs so you don't always capture these big gains using this time frame. If the weekly or monthly chart is too long a time frame to use, then you should use them to identify the longer term trend if nothing else. For instance if the weekly or monthly chart is trending upwards, then you should look for buying opportunities on the daily chart. The point is that you should always have a look at the weekly and monthly charts because they can provide you with some invaluable information (and trading opportunities). The trends on these longer term time frames can last for months, and even years in some cases.
Everybody starts out in CFD Trading wanting to make money but a whopping 95% of Traders lose, which leaves 5% winners. So what is it that the 5% of CFD Traders are doing to make them win in CFD Trading. What are the mistakes that the 95% of people are making, and how can you avoid them!One of the major reasons that so many people lose when it comes to CFD trading is that they believe they have a sure fire winning CFD trading system or CFD robot that is going to make them rich. The first thing to take from this is that making money from CFD Trading is not easy, and it does take some skill.Think about this for minute if it was so easy to win, everybody would be CFD Trading and if a Robot was so successful would you in fact sell that robot? Probably not! More often than not people that develop these CFD Robots sell them and this is how they generate their income and not from CFD FX REPORT. So be very careful when it comes to buying a CFD Robot especially off the back of all the claims they make.The second group just don't understand the unique skills you need to win and they have the following misconceptions:If they work hard they will win but effort counts for nothing in CFD trading, just being right does and this means you have to work smart - not hard.Some people believe that they need to have a highly complicated trading system to be successful, however the opposite is more likely, the less complicated the better.Another portion of this group, believes the myths that can be found all on internet which include:- Scalping and day trading is a way to make massive money- You can predict CFD markets in advance- Buy low sell high is a great way to make money- CFD markets move to science and a mathematical theoryThere are many more and the above are just a few myths.This group wants to put in effort but they do so in the wrong areas and lose, because they simply get the wrong CFD education.How to be successfulTo learn to trade CFD is easy anyone can learn a logical robust system that can make gains but that is not all you need for success - you need the right mindset to apply it and this means trading with discipline. It is not just matter following these systems.Discipline is the key to success and you have to understand that you will have losing streaks, so you must stick to your rules and trading plans.Discipline comes from the right CFD education and having confidence in your trading plan. For further educational information feel free to visit the CFD FX REPORT, as they have a lot of educational information and can help you find the best CFD Broker.To be a successful CFD Trader you don't have to just work hard, work smarter, use simple systems and have discipline.
Successful stock market trading begins with a winning trading plan. It's as simple as that. If you develop a well-conceived trading plan to guide your actions in the stock market you will already have the advantage over most of your market competition. Put simply, it gives you the edge you need to win over the long haul when trading the stock market or forex market.A stock market trading plan will not guarantee your success in the markets, but a good plan will enable you to work methodically toward your stock market trading goals while reviewing on a regular basis what is working and what is not. It will act as a roadmap for your trading journey. It will enable you to respond positively and constructively no matter what happens with your individual trades. And, most importantly, it will help you control the only thing a trader can control: his or her own actions.Finally, stock market trading is a business. It can be a fascinating and sometimes thrilling business, but in the end it is a business. A trading plan helps you treat it as a business.Here are some important elements of a trading plan.1. Why am I trading? What are my goals?The answers to these questions might seem obvious, but they usually are not. Take some time to ask them of yourself, and seriously consider the answers. You may be surprised by what you learn. And whatever the answers, you will have a clearer picture going forward of what this enterprise means to you, and that will help you survive any rough patches.2. What markets am I going to trade and why?It is often best to specialize, especially for beginning stock market traders. Many pros make a great living trading the same stock day every single day for years. Choose a market that is appropriate for your experience level and trading style. Consider other factors such as available margin, volatility and liquidity.3. What is the concept or philosophy behind your trading methodology?Your trading system must have a concept behind it. Whether you are a value investor like Warren Buffet or a trend trader like George Soros, you should understand why you are doing what you are doing, how your beliefs about the markets define what you will do as a trader.4. What will be your specific method?In other words, specifically how will you execute your trading ideas? Will you buy breakouts or pullbacks? Buy oversold or sell overbought? Or will you use specific technical setups such as moving-average crossovers or another indicator-based strategy? Under exactly what conditions will you enter? When will you know to exit?5. How much money will you risk on any single trade? On trading in general?This is critical. Of course, start small. But just as importantly, have a plan in place for how much you will risk, emotions don't cloud your judgment when the time comes. The key is to find an allocation that doesn't cause any stress but still makes the trade worthwhile financially. One of the biggest problems with newer traders is that they are trading way too big in relation to their account size. Like when you are forex trading. Trading forex at 100-1 leverage is like introducing your mistress to your wife. Yes, you can do it, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Normally they don't get along too well.6. What will my trading rules be?This is also critical. Your trading rules include entry and exit rules, rules governing maximum daily, weekly or monthly losses, maximum risk on any given trade, the maximum number of trades per week, etc., etc. These rules enforce discipline and keep you out of trouble. What stock price will enter at, what stock price will I will exit. Be discplined.7. How will I record and evaluate my trading performance?Allow me to repeat myself: This is critical. In fact, this might be the most important element of trading for new traders in the stock market. A new stock market trader who evaluates his trades, winners and losers, in an effort to learn what works and what does not, will make quantum leaps forward in terms of ability and profitability. If you have a working trading plan and evaluate every single one of your trades after you have closed it you have already beaten 95% of the competition.8. What are my rules for managing profits?What's the problem with profits? Well, believe it or not there is one, and it's a serious one. It's called euphoria, and it clouds the judgment perhaps more than any other emotion related to trading. Start piling up the profits for the first time and it won't be long before you are convinced you are king of the world. About 30 seconds later you'll be broke, following a series of unwise and exceedingly risky trades. So have a plan for protecting closed profits when you have reached your goals for the week or the month. Don't give them all back.9. How will I reward myself for following my trading plan?Don't leave this out. Following your trading plan will bring rewards in the form of profits, but you should also consciously reward yourself for doing so because it is such an important part of successful trading. So if you finish the week or the month (or even the day) without having broken any of your trading rules, find a way to reward yourself. You deserve it. You are in rare company.If you follow your plan you are improving your chances of becoming successful stock market or forex trader.
Contracts for Difference (are commonly known as a CFD) is a contract between the trader and a CFD TRADER, who will at the close of the contract, exchange the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the underlying index, share, commodity, per the number of specified CFD contracts.Stepping away from the technical jargon, a CFD differs from the traditional trading methods in that you aren't purchasing the nominated investment, but trading on its speculated price movement. The main idea of CFDs is the ability to be able to trade higher volumes than traditional trading whilst using less initial capital.The buyer is of the contracts is required to pay commission to enter the contract, plus fixed interest on the remaining value of the borrowed amount, until they decide to end the contract, at which time they are paid the price difference. The buyer may opt on either side high (buy) or the low (sell), meaning if the contract was a low trade the buyer can still turn a profit it that was the initial investment.The key distinction between traditional share buying and CFD buying is that buying a CFD is done on leverage (typically between 5%-35% for actively trade stocks), both share and CFDs participate in all corporate action, both buyers receive dividends but only the buyer of the share is able to vote and receive the franking credits. With CFDs you don't get these rights. The CFD seller is able to go low (sell) with ease.This makes CFDs an excellent trading product. The leverage and ability to short sell gives trades dollar power and flexibility.Unlike futures CFDs do not have an expiry date (you can hold as long or as short as you desire).With CFDs you can open up a whole new trading world, with the ability to trade shares, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities.Not only can you trade Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) listed shares but you have access to world wide markets, such as the United States (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P), United Kingdom (FTSE), Japan (NEIKKI), Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and many other countries.This is why CFDs are the flexible new way to trade. To find out more on CFDs feel free to visit the CFD FX REPORTwho offer education lessons, can help you find the best CFD Trader in market
Stock Market Trading- Are you ready to become a millionaire. Here are 3 proven strategies to make you become a more successful trader and increase your wealth. They can be used if you are forex trader, stock market trader.If you want to catch the serious profit in Forex Trading you need to trend watch Forex trends which are worse term. here we are going to give you a 3 step simple method which if you use it correctly, will help you catch every superior Forex trend and lead you to long-term term currency dealing success. This will add more money to your bottom line than most other strategies.For you to become a successful Forex Trader, you must set rules and then follow them. Successful Forex Traders have discpline.Most beginner Forex traders don't bother trying to trend following Forex lengthier term - instead they try Forex scalping or day trading. These methods focus the trader on small moves and they hope to catch small profit however as most short term moves are random, this leads to equity eliminate.The other alternatives are swing trading and long term Forex trend following and this article is all about the latter method. If you look at any Forex chart, you will see long-term term trends that last for months or years. These moves can and do yield serious profit - present we will outline a simple method to get them.BreakoutsBy far the best way of catching the serious moves is to use a Forex Trading strategy based around breakouts. A breakout is simply a move on a Forex chart where a new high or low is made and resistance or support is broken.It's a fact that most leading moves start from new highs or lows.While it might appear that you are not buying or selling at the greatest level, you are in terms of the odds of the trend continuing. Most Forex traders make the mistake of waiting for the breakout to come back and get in at a better price but these traders never get on board. The grounds are if a breakout occurs, then you have a new strong trend and a pullback is not very likely to occur.Most traders don't buy or sell breakouts and that's exactly why it's such a powerful method.The only point to keep in mind is a support or resistance which is ruined, should be valid and that means at least 3 points in at least 2 different times frames. The more tests and the greater the spacing between the tests the more valid the level is.Confirmation: Make sure it is confirmedOf course not every breakout keeps and some reverse, these are false and can cause losses. You therefore need to confirm each move. All you need to do to achieve this is to put a few momentum indicators in your Forex trading system to confirm your dealing signal.These indicators give you an estimation of the strength and velocity of price and there are many to choose from. We don't have time to discuss them here (simply look up our other articles) but two of the greatest are - the stochastic and Relative Strength Index RSIStops and TargetsStop points are easy with breakouts - Simply behind the breakout point.If you have a serious trend then you need to be careful you can milk it, so don't move your stop to soon and keep it outside of normal volatility. If it is a huge move, trailing stops should be held a long-term way back and the 40 day moving average is a good level to use.You have to keep in mind that when the trend does eventually turn you are going to give some profit back. You don't know when the trend is going to end, so don't predict.It's ok to give a serious back, as that's the nature of trading Forex. Keep in mind if you got 50% of all leading trend you would be very rich. When you are long-term term trend following you have accept giving a bit back and taking dips in open equity as the trend develops - this is noise and does not affect the long term trend.The above is a simple way to trend watch Forex and catch the high odds moves that yield the serious profit. If you are learning Forex dealing and want a simple method that is robust and will help you get every major move, then you should base your dealing on the above method.Now that you have all the winning strategies, you now need to have a winning broker, recently the CFD FX REPORT has reviewed these brokers and have come up with Best Forex Broker to find out this visit the website.
Little Known Ways Regarding FOREX Market Online : Discover Helpful Suggestions Next
Posted by chintanFOREX is the Foreign Exchange market also known as FX. All three of these means the same thing, which is the trade of trading between different banks, businesses, companies, and governments that are located in different countries. The financial market is one that is always changing leaving deals that need to be completed through brokers, and banks. Many scams have been emerging in the FOREX business, as companies and people from other countries are setting up on the Web to take advantage of persons who don't know that foreign trade has to take place through a broker or a company with direct participation concerning foreign exchanges online. Stocks, cash, and currency is traded through the foreign exchange markets. The FOREX market will be present and exist when one currency is traded for another. Think about a voyage you may take to another country. Where can you 'trade your money' for the value of the other country's money? This is FOREX trading basis, and it is not offered in all banks, and it is not available in all financial centers. FOREX is a specialized trading circumstance. When its time to learn about FOREX and the foreign trade markets, small business and individuals looking to make big money are often the victims of scams. As FOREX is recognized as how to make a quick buck or two, individuals don't enquiry about their participation in such an occurrence, but you could easily end up losing all your investment in the transaction if you are not investing money through a broker in the FOREX market. Scams to be wary of... A FOREX scam is one that involves trading but will turn out to be a fraud; you have no chance of getting your money back once you have invested it. If you were to invest cash with a corporation that states they are involved in FOREX trading you want to read closely to learn if they are permitted to do business in your country. Many companies are not permitted in the FOREX market, as they have defrauded investors in the past. Thanks to Internet, in the past five years, FOREX trading and the awareness of FOREX trading has become the place to invest. Banks are the number one source for FOREX trading to take place, where a trained and licensed broker is going to complete transactions and requirements you set forth. Commissions are paid on the transaction and this is the usual. Another sort of scam that is prevalent in the FOREX markets online is software that will help you to make trades, to learn about the foreign markets and in practicing so you can prepare yourself for following and making trades. You need to rely on a program or software that is really going to make a difference. Consult with your financial broker or your bank to know more about FOREX trading, the FX markets and how you can avoid being the victim while investing in these markets.
Both presidential candidates want to crucify SEC Chairman Cox for failing to control our creative financial institutions. But rumor has it that Congress specifically excluded the devilish derivatives from SEC purview. Let's fire the right bunch of "poips" for a change!Scary markets are brought about by many factors, some normal, and some not so normal. It's often helpful to look backwards before getting too paranoid about the present. The S & L crisis of the early 80s might be an appropriate starting point.Later that decade, a multi-year rally had its head lopped off by high interest rates, high inflation, and a computer loop. Ten years later, another soaring market was toppled by economic factors. The turn of the century witnessed the bloody demise of the no-value-at-all dot-com illusion. A profit taking strategy during the rally days was all that was necessary to cash in on "The Crash of '87". In 2000, the route to immunity could be summarized as: "no IPOs, no mutual funds, no dot-coms, no problem".The common historical (hysterical) thread is clear. Rally begets correction; correction spawns rally. This time around, ironically, conservative investors had no trouble avoiding the derivatives that eventually sunk the markets. But, the products were so "out there", and the regulators so out-flanked, that the unwinding has unglued several investment world icons. This correction is different--- but not in the ways you might think:The scope of media coverage, analysis, and sensationalism; masses of inexperienced, non-professional, speculators; and the popularity of investment products are new phenomena. Millions of nameless non-credentialed Internet investment experts and financial bloggers add to the pandemonium.Similarly, the proliferation of passive investment mediums (index funds); regulatory tolerance of speculations of all forms, shapes, and sizes; and the relaxation of the trading safeguards that have protected investors for decades encourage a reckless, gambling approach toward what was once investing. We've seen what conscienceless commodity speculators have accomplished in world markets.We have experienced a major movement away from plain vanilla stocks and bonds, and have popularized the thrill ride of speculative activities. 401(k) fund selections include short-long funds, currency trading strategies, and commodity futures. IRA investors seek out the most exotic forms of speculation, convinced that, with a Blackberry and a lunch break, they can master the complexities of high finance.Regulators have allowed funds of hedge funds into small investor portfolios; brokerage firms short shares that don't exist multiple times; the once sacred up-tick rule has been abandoned when shorting itself should be a banned substance; and CDOs make it difficult to determine just who owes money to whom.Enough? There's more, but you get the idea. Today's problems are much more visible than yesterday's. Today's worries involve bigger numbers. Tomorrow's solutions will undoubtedly bring creative MBAs to discover new financial WMDs. The investment gods are angry. We need to bring back that old time rock and roll, and an investment world content with individual stocks and bonds.In less complicated times, the difference was in the fixing. Speculators suffered, but safer investment styles were less vulnerable. Let's elect a Congress that will regulate the speculations and allow us to get back to the basic, fundamental, adventure of building and protecting our nest eggs. Think back, just a few cycles ago--- familiar?The Market was breezing along during the summer of '87, enjoying one of the broadest rallies ever experienced on Wall Street. From the very start, equity prices seemed incapable of going down. The mystical DJIA 2000 barrier was shattered early in the year and upward the market soared. On through 2100 it rumbled, then 2200, and 2300--- even the comic strip, dartboard approach proved successful, and many subscribed to it. The securities markets were simple, with fewer labyrinthine products, and only the dark cloud of rapidly rising interest rates in an otherwise clear sky. 2400 on the DJIA by July and on it went. No end in sight.The institutions introduced hundreds of new mutual funds, pumped up their marketing efforts, and pushed the rally skyward--- 2500, 2600, 2700, just incredible. None of the salivating mutual fund unit holders saw it coming; Wall Street didn't care. The Dow topped out at 2722 that August--- about the same number of points involved in a swinging September 2008. Only the names and the products have changed---The parallels to today's markets are interesting. Value stocks and bonds were moving lower while IPOs and other speculations were bubbling higher. As prices weakened, analysts began to mumble. The economy certainly didn't look like a doom and gloom scenario--- just those pesky interest rates. And then it hit the fan.Technology bombed the market when programmed-trading sell signals ran fast and furious down the cables, resetting themselves lower, and lower, and lower--- but the stock being sold actually existed! Wall Street panicked! Inflation fears, higher interest rates, tension in Europe, foreign oil, war in The Middle East, and so on. All of the usual suspects were touted by the media as the culprits that caused "The Crash of '87". It just doesn't take a whole lot of Wall Street manipulation (or arrogance) to turn speculative greed into investment fear. The wizards had done it again, sucking the franklins from unsuspecting individual investor portfolios, just as they would two cycles later when their dot-coms sealed the fate of another generation of speculators.Yes, the similarities are striking--- one meltdown to the next. But this time is slightly different. This time the Masters of the Universe were helped by Congress and the SEC to pick our collective pockets, and a few of them have actually, and appropriately, drowned in their own garbage. I'll shed no tears for the fallen giants, but let's all cry out loudly about the problem--- a problem that both Barack and John were a part of. It's Congress that gets to chastise and create regulations for the bad guys. This year, and in those that follow, let's fire the DC fat cats that caused the problem, and find some regulators with the guts to label speculations as thoroughly as they do medications.
Most investment mistakes are caused by basic misunderstandings of the securities markets and by invalid performance expectations. The markets move in totally unpredictable cyclical patterns of varying duration and amplitude. Evaluating the performance of the two major classes of investment securities needs to be done separately because they are owned for differing purposes. Stock market equity investments are expected to produce realized capital gains; income-producing investments are expected to generate cash flow.Losing money on an investment may not be the result of an investment mistake, and not all mistakes result in monetary losses. But errors occur most frequently when judgment is unduly influenced by emotions such as fear and greed, hindsightful observations, and short-term market value comparisons with unrelated numbers. Your own misconceptions about how securities react to varying economic, political, and hysterical circumstances are your most vicious enemy. Master these ten risk-minimizers to improve your long-term investment performance:1. Develop an investment plan. Identify realistic goals that include considerations of time, risk-tolerance, and future income requirements--- think about where you are going before you start moving in the wrong direction. A well thought out plan will not need frequent adjustments. A well-managed plan will not be susceptible to the addition of trendy speculations.2. Learn to distinguish between asset allocation and diversification decisions. Asset allocation divides the portfolio between equity and income securities. Diversification is a strategy that limits the size of individual portfolio holdings in at least three different ways. Neither activity is a hedge, or a market timing devices. Neither can be done precisely with mutual funds, and both are handled most efficiently by using a cost basis approach like the Working Capital Model.3. Be patient with your plan. Although investing is always referred to as long- term, it is rarely dealt with as such by investors, the media, or financial advisors. Never change direction frequently, and always make gradual rather than drastic adjustments. Short-term market value movements must not be compared with un-portfolio related indices and averages. There is no index that compares with your portfolio, and calendar sub-divisions have no relationship whatever to market, interest rate, or economic cycles. 4. Never fall in love with a security, particularly when the company was once your employer. It's alarming how often accounting and other professionals refuse to fix the resultant single-issue portfolios. Aside from the love issue, this becomes an unwilling-to-pay-the-taxes problem that often brings the unrealized gain to the Schedule D as a realized loss. No profit, in either class of securities, should ever go unrealized. A target profit must be established as part of your plan.5. Prevent "analysis paralysis" from short-circuiting your decision-making powers. An overdose of information will cause confusion, hindsight, and an inability to distinguish between research and sales materials--- quite often the same document. A somewhat narrow focus on information that supports a logical and well-documented investment strategy will be more productive in the long run. Avoid future predictors.6. Burn, delete, toss out the window any short cuts or gimmicks that are supposed to provide instant stock picking success with minimum effort. Don't allow your portfolio to become a hodgepodge of mutual funds, index ETFs, partnerships, pennies, hedges, shorts, strips, metals, grains, options, currencies, etc. Consumers' obsession with products underlines how Wall Street has made it impossible for financial professionals to survive without them. Remember: consumers buy products; investors select securities.7. Attend a workshop on interest rate expectation (IRE) sensitive securities and learn how to deal appropriately with changes in their market value--- in either direction. The income portion of your portfolio must be looked at separately from the growth portion. Bottom line market value changes must be expected and understood, not reacted to with either fear or greed. Fixed income does not mean fixed price. Few investors ever realize (in either sense) the full power of this portion of their portfolio.8. Ignore Mother Nature's evil twin daughters, speculation and pessimism. They'll con you into buying at market peaks and panicking when prices fall, ignoring the cyclical opportunities provided by Momma. Never buy at all time high prices or overload the portfolio with current story stocks. Buy good companies, little by little, at lower prices and avoid the typical investor's buy high, sell low frustration. 9. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Most investment errors involve unrealistic time horizon, and/or "apples to oranges" performance comparisons. The get rich slowly path is a more reliable investment road that Wall Street has allowed to become overgrown, if not abandoned. Portfolio growth is rarely a straight-up arrow and short-term comparisons with unrelated indices, averages or strategies simply produce detours that speed progress away from original portfolio goals.10. Avoid the cheap, the easy, the confusing, the most popular, the future knowing, and the one-size-fits-all. There are no freebies or sure things on Wall Street, and the further you stray from conventional stocks and bonds, the more risk you are adding to your portfolio. When cheap is an investor's primary concern, what he gets will generally be worth the price.Compounding the problems that investors face managing their investment portfolios is the sensationalism that the media brings to the process. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Investing is a personal project where individual/family goals and objectives must dictate portfolio structure, management strategy, and performance evaluation techniques. Do most individual investors have difficulty in an environment that encourages instant gratification, supports all forms of speculation, and gets off on shortsighted reports, reactions, and achievements? Yup.
Looking for good news in today's markets is like searching for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Needless to say, practically all investment grade equities and nearly all closed end funds that specialize in providing regular recurring monthly income have been reduced in market value by this prolonged correction. The quake has spread in all directions from its financial epicenter, and the mounting doom and gloom has taken its toll on even the most rational investment decision makers. Try to keep in mind that the purpose of income investing is the income that your portfolio produces not an increase in the securities' market values---So here's the good news (and for anyone with a 40% or higher income asset allocation, or an income portfolio being used for living expenses), it really is very good news. Base income levels, from the beginning of the stock market correction in June '07 until mid-July '08, have barely changed at all. In fact, they have probably risen in properly asset allocated portfolios. I have examined the regular recurring monthly income distributed by 56 taxable income CEFs and 61 tax-free income CEFs, and the conclusions are pretty remarkable.In spite of the fact that the vast majority of my favorite monthly income producers are lower in market value than I would like, the amount of income they are distributing to shareholders has not moved lower meaningfully--- even though the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by approximately 60% during the past twelve months. Here are the numbers: (1) 48% of the taxable-income CEFs are distributing precisely the same amount per share as they did a year ago. Fourteen issues have increased their payouts and fifteen have reduced them. The net result is a decrease of just fourteen cents (2.5% of the total monthly payout). The average current yield on the portfolio, as of mid July '07, is 9.86% without considering any capital gains distributions. Additionally, the group is selling at market prices that reflect an average discount of nearly 11% from NAV. Is that special or what? The bonds, preferred stocks, government securities are priced 11% below their current market values.(2) The numbers are similar with regard to the 61 tax-free income CEFs: 46% have not altered their payout over the past twelve months; eighteen have reduced their payout slightly, and 15 have increased the monthly dole. The net difference for the group over the past year is less than one cent, or a percentage change of two-tenths of one percent. Remarkable. This group is selling at an average discount from NAV of 9.1% and has a current tax-free yield of 5.51%. (3) Of 117 individual issues, about half have produced stable income. The others have accounted for a total payout reduction of less than 15 cents--- a measly 1.7%. Why is this amount of little consequence? Two reasons really. First of all, a properly asset-allocated income portfolio does not disburse all of the base income it receives, so there is income available to reinvest in more shares of income producing securities. This process assures a growing cash flow to calm your fear of rising prices. The other reason is a bit more hypothetical. The Fed has lowered rates significantly, a process that normally produces higher prices for income securities. Eventually, those lower interest rates (even if global pressures convince politicians to take back some of the reductions) should produce higher prices (i.e., profit taking opportunities) in these securities.Admittedly, even if your asset allocation has been fine tuned for years, lower portfolio market values in this area make stock market valuation shrinkage feel even worse. But the value of stable cash flow becomes painfully clear for investors who misguidedly depend on capital gains for their spending money. Properly asset allocated portfolios contain enough base income generators to pay the bills. The purpose of capital gains is to produce proportionately more base income generators.The purpose of this email is simply to bring some needed sunlight into an investment environment that is far gloomier than I think it needs to be. If you want the details, you'll have to request them personally.
Value stocks are those that tend to trade at lower prices relative to their fundamental characteristics than their more speculative cousins, the growth stocks; they have higher than usual dividend yields and lower P/E and P/B ratios. So when all stock prices are down significantly, have they all become value stocks? Or, based on the panicky fear that tends to overwhelm media and financial experts alike, haven't they all taken on the speculative characteristics of growth stocks? Well, to a certain extent they have, because the lower value stock prices go, the more likely it is that they will eventually experience the 15% ROE that typifies the classic growth stock. Interestingly, by definition, growth stocks are expected to be associated with profitable companies, a fact that speculators often lose site of. There are three features that separate value stocks from growth stocks and two that separate Investment Grade Value (IGV) stocks from the average, run-of-the-mill, variety. Value stocks pay dividends, and have lower ratios than growth stocks. IGV stock companies also have long-term histories of profitability and an S & P rating of B+ or higher. Would you be surprised to learn that neither the DJIA nor the S & P 500 contains particularly high numbers of IGV stocks? Still, since 1982, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks 62% of the time. So when an ugly correction has a makeover, it's likely that all value stocks transform themselves into growth stocks, at least temporarily. Will Rogers summed up the stock selection quandary nicely with: "Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't buy them." Many have misunderstood this tongue-in-cheek observation and joined the buy-anything-high investment club. You need dig no further than the current lists (June '08) of "most advancing issues" to see how investors are buying commodity companies and financial futures at the highest prices in the history of mankind. This while they are shunning IGVSI (Investment Grade Value Stock Index) companies that have plummeted to their most attractive price levels in three to five years. Many of the very best multinational companies in the world are at historically low prices. Wall Street smiles knowingly (and greedily) as Main Street hucksters tout gold, currencies, and oil futures as retirement plan safety nets. Regulatory agencies look the other way as speculations worm their way into qualified plans of all varieties. Surely those markets will be regulated some day--- after the next Bazooka-pink, gooey mess becomes history.How much financial bloodshed is necessary before we realize that there is no safe and easy shortcut to investment success? When do we learn that most of our mistakes involve greed, fear, or unrealistic expectations about what we own? Eventually, successful investors begin to allocate assets in a goal directed manner by adopting a more realistic investment strategy--- one with security selection guidelines and realistic performance definitions and expectations. If you are thinking of trying a strategy for a year to see if it works, you're being too short-term sighted--- the investment markets operate in cycles. If you insist on comparing your performance with indices and averages, you'll rarely be satisfied. A viable investment strategy will be a three-dimensional decision model, and all three decisions are equally important. Few strategies include a targeted profit taking discipline--- dimension two. The first dimension involves the selection of securities. The third?How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy them? We've discussed the features of value and growth stocks and seen how any number of companies can qualify as either dependent upon where we are in terms of the market cycle or where they are in terms of their own industry, sector, or business cycles. Value stocks (and the debt securities of value stock companies) tend to be safer than growth stocks. But IGVSI stocks are super-screened by a unique rating system that is based on company survival statistics--- very important stuff.In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known value fund manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he said that they didn't qualify as value stocks, he was told to change his definition--- or else. IGV stocks include a quality element that minimizes the risk of loss and normally smoothes the angles in the market cycle. The market value highs are typically not as high, but the market value lows are most often not as low as they are with either growth or Wall Street definition value stocks. They work best in conjunction with portfolios that have an income allocation of at least 30%--- you need to know why. How do we create a confidence building IGV stock selection universe without getting bogged down in endless research? Here are five filters you can use to come up with a listing of higher quality companies: (1) An S & P rating of B+ or better. Standard & Poor's combines many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the companies. Anything rated lower adds more risk to your portfolio. (2) A history of profitability. Although it should seem obvious, buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable operations is inherently less risky. Profitable operations adapt more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth opportunities. (3) A history of regular, even increasing, dividend payments. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend. Dividend changes are important, absolute size is not. (4) A Reasonable Price Range. Most Investment Grade stocks are priced above $10 per share and only a few trade at levels above $100. An unusually high price may be caused by higher sector or company-specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be a good warning signal. (5) An NYSE listing--- just because it's easier.Your selection universe will become the backbone of your equity asset allocation, so there is no room for creative adjustments to the rules and guidelines you've established--- no matter how strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. There are approximately 450 IGV stocks to choose from--- and you'll find the name recognition comforting. Additionally, as these companies gyrate above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock market and not an imminent financial disaster.The QDI? Quality, diversification, and income.
"The time has come the walrus said, to talk of many things": Of corrections--portfolios--- and window dressing--- of market cycles--- wizards--- and reality.Quarterly portfolio window dressing is one of many immortal Jaberwock-like creatures that roam the granite canyons of the Manhattan triangle, sending inappropriate signals to unwary investors and media spokespersons. Many of you, like the unsuspecting young oysters in the Lewis Carroll classic, are responding to the daily news nonsense with fear instead of embracing the new opportunities that are surely right there, cloaked, just beyond your short-term vision field.Older and wiser mollusks who have experienced the cyclical realities of the markets tend to stick with proven strategies that are based on a solid foundation of QDI (quality, diversification, and income production). They know that corrections lead to rallies, and that rallies always give way to corrections. If only the corrections could elicit patience instead of fear; if only rallies didn't produce greed and excess. There's a lot of confusion in a world that considers commodities safer instruments than corporate bonds.Long lasting investment portfolios are consciously asset allocated between high quality income and equity securities. Each class of securities is then diversified properly to mitigate the risk that the failure of a single security issuer will bring down the entire enterprise. Simply put, a portfolio with 100% invested in the absolute, hands-down, best company on the planet is a high-risk portfolio. There is no cure for cyclical changes in security market values--- diversified portfolios thrive on it, in the long run.The differences between a correction in either a market (equity or debt) or a market sector (financials, drugs, transportation, etc.), and a fall from grace in a specific company are important to appreciate. Corrections are broad downward movements that affect nearly all securities in a specific market. This particular one has impacted prices in both investment markets, while creating rallies in more speculative arenas. Ten years ago, the dot-com bubble began under very similar circumstances. Ten years earlier, it was interest rates--- and on, and on. When all prices are down, opportunity is at hand.There are approximately 450 Investment Grade Value Stocks, and at least half are down significantly from their 52-week highs; fewer than ten per cent were in this condition just over a year ago. But very few companies have thrown in the towel, or even cut their dividends. Closed end income fund prices are still well below the levels they commanded when interest rates were much higher, yet they provide the same cash flow as before the financial crises. The economy and the markets have been through much worse.Why aren't the wizards of Wall Street assuaging our nerves by explaining the cyclical nature of the markets and pointing out that similar crises have always preceded the attainment of new all time highs? Right, because the unhappy investor is Wall Street's best friend. Why can't politicians address economic problems with capitalist-economic solutions? Fear, and the panic it evokes, creates an easy market for walruses, oyster knives in hand. Wall Street plays to the operative emotion of the day--- greed in the commodities markets and fear in the others. Once per quarter, they trim their holdings in unpopular sectors and add to their positions in areas that have strengthened. Under current conditions in the traditional investment arena, don't be surprised by larger than usual cash holdings (certainly not "Smart Cash"). Window dressing pushes the prices of your holdings lower, in spite of their continued income production and sustained quality ratings. How have the wizards managed to re-define the long-term investment process as a quarterly horse race against indices and averages that have no relationship to investor goals, objectives, or portfolio content? Why do these proponents of long-term investment planning and thinking religiously conspire to make short-term decisions that prey upon the emotional weaknesses of their clients? The "art of looking smart" window-dressing exercise accomplishes several things in correcting markets:The things you own are artificially manipulated lower in price to make you even more uncomfortable with them, while the things you don't have positions in stabilize or move higher. The glossies from the new fund family your advisor is talking about show no holdings in any of the current areas of weakness. It's easy to make fearful investors change positions and/or strategies. Sic 'em boys. Brilliant! Value investors (those who invest in IGVSI stocks, and income securities with an unbroken cash flow track record) may lapse into fearful thinking as well, and this is where the Working Capital Model comes to the rescue. By focusing on the purpose of the securities you own, their enhanced attractiveness at lower prices becomes obvious. Higher yields at lower market valuations and more shares at lower prices equal faster realized profits as the numbers move higher during the next upward movement of the cycle. That's just the way it is. A reality you can count on.Surprisingly few investors have the courage to take advantage of market corrections. Even more surprising is how reluctant the most respected institutional walruses are to suggest buying when prices are low. The instant gratification expectation of investors combined with the infallibility expected of professionals, by both the media and their employers, is the cause. Gurus are expected to know what, when, and how much. Consequently, they prefer to manipulate their portfolios to create an illusion of past brilliance, rather than taking the chance that they may actually be in the right position a few quarters down the road. There is no know in investing.The stock market yard sale is in full swing--- add to your retirement accounts, buy more of IGVSI stocks at bargain prices, increase your dependable income and increase current yields at the same time. Apply patience, and vote for economic solutions to economic problems.Perge'.
Gets your attention, doesn't it? The unfortunate thing though, is that most people will react negatively to this intentionally inflammatory, media-ready, title statement. Has some Wall Street virus attacked our financial experience memory chip? Bouncing around unpredictably is precisely what the markets have always done. In the last forty years, there have been no less than ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the markets to significantly higher levels. Volatility is not a bad thing--- a non-event, even. Ironically, it is this routine volatility (caused by hundreds of human, economic, political, and natural variables) that is the only real certainty existent in the financial markets. Would anyone be happy with market prices that didn't change? Should anyone expect market valuations that only go up? So what's all the anxiety, scrambling, and crying about? As absurd as this may sound at first blush, you will never become a successful investor until you are able to embrace market volatility as your dearest and closest friend.The Wall Street media is also your friend, because it fans investor emotions to the point where rational thinking becomes impossible for most participants. My observation the other night at dinner (that the 400 point drop in the DJIA had provided an opportunity to purchase dozens of IGV stocks at bargain prices) was met with vacant stares. When I added that nearly half of those stocks had been sold profitably in recent weeks--- you can imagine the shocked silence that followed.Investor perceptions of volatility need to be rearranged. When you allow more than an up-only smiley face into your understanding of the markets, you will be able to position yourself to actually take advantage of the volatility while it is happening. When you realize that the causes of market gyrations are not nearly as important as the opportunities for bargain hunting and profit taking that they produce, you'll be able to grow and to protect your portfolios from your emotional dark side.Let's talk about reality. There are many different ways that professional investors and speculators make their fortunes in the financial markets. The key is to know whether the path you are following is too speculative for the destination you are seeking. Over the past twenty years or so, the stock market has provided the best returns for most investors--- yes, even better than commodities, currencies, and ETFs (which didn't exist even ten years ago). But balanced investment portfolios, those containing both investment grade value stocks and income generating securities have probably surpassed all others. Let's talk about causation. There are far too many variables affecting the movement of security prices to allow for accurate prediction of either the scope or duration of short-term gyrations. Every rally produces both a bubble of some kind and the pin that will eventually do the bursting. Hindsight identifies all the culprits and promises to regulate them out of the system so that the future will be different. Don't kid yourself. The next rally will come to the same bloody end as its predecessors. Volatility Rocks!But this year we have the opportunity to assure that our economic future will be better. Much of the current skittishness in the financial markets is caused by multiple economic concerns and the incredibly naive resolution ideas being spouted by the presidential candidates. And there are other, somehow out of the limelight, economic issues that politicians are afraid to even consider. The primary economic issues (jobs, energy, and economic growth) need to be joined by Social Security reform, corporate tax reform, and term limitations in congress. No president, no matter how bold, can bring about meaningful change without a less self-serving cast of characters in the legislative branch. But this kind of change can't happen until we replace the current batch of pork barrel politicians with a new group of change orientated decision makers. Today's congress legislates mind-numbing regulations that stifle creativity and economic growth. Investors need to support fewer "taxors" and to elect a whole new group of economic facilitators. Throw out the incumbents this November.You just don't create jobs by taxing, regulating, and otherwise strangling the job creators. In most communities, local governments think of their non-voting corporate citizens as ratables instead of as job providers. Serious jobs would be created, and general price reductions produced (good or bad for the GDP?), through a controlled elimination of all income taxation on legitimate corporate job providers. Of course it would have to be regulated to assure jobs, price reductions, and shareholder benefits, and not just more perks for obscenely paid executives.Similarly, taxing gasoline production and delivery organizations is not going to bring down the price per barrel of crude oil. But "taxing" the cartel that fixes the prices instead of bribing them with protection from their enemies could work almost as well as tapping into our own abundant supply and adding some long-needed refining capacity. Eliminating state and federal gasoline taxes and fees and taxes on interstate truckers would produce many cost/price benefits as well.Economic growth, more jobs, and lower prices could be the immediate result of two relatively simple changes that neither of the Presidential hopefuls have the courage to even whisper about. Without nearly enough detail: (1) Over a five-year period, change Social Security to a mandated-contribution, deferred, individual fixed annuity program managed on a flat fee basis by 15-year experienced insurance companies. No variable (stock market) benefit plans would be allowed; all citizens would be eligible to participate, and all employed persons (Congress included) would be enrolled automatically. Contributions would be reduced and employer participation eliminated.(2) Eliminate all taxation on any form of retirement income immediately, and phase out all taxation on all forms of investment income over a five-year period. Replace those taxes with a 1% Federal sales tax an all goods and services except food, shelter, clothing, and health care. Then, we can start to replace the Internal Revenue Code with something simple, protect shareholders from unconscionable corporate executive compensation, and come up with a solution for providing adequate healthcare to everyone.We have met the enemy and he is us--- Walt Kelly, Pogo.
Thousands of people who have money in any type of account for their retirement can consider ourselves participating in the Stock market. But have you pondered about the functionality of how this interesting market works? Imagine being at a regular auction, where instead of nice bits such as cars and antiques are being bidded away, think of bits of public companies being auctioned away.To make a less confusing analogy, think about the role of an auctioneer. The auctioneer's role is to get the highest and best price for each product. Well, the stock exchanges around the globe kinda operate in the same fashion. The auctioneer role, is called a Market Maker. In a stock sale, there is no stable, set price for stocks, but instead, setting the price is the role of the Market Maker. The price will fluctuate greatly, because the ying and yang of the market, the buyers and sellers, will bid on either the stock going lower, or higher. Usually when you see a stock price go up, it means that the buy price of a stock has increased. This is vice versa when a stock declines in value. Now I am sure you have seen visuals on the major news networks of how a stock floor looks. You know, the floor where tons of stark raving mad folks, scream numbers and look at monitors and make trades all day. The trading day starts at 9:30 in the morning Eastern Time, and stops at 4:00 in the afternoon Easter Time. Depending on business news, market forecasts, world events, and a few other things thrown in between, can dictate how much volume a market can have in a day.The last couple of paragraphs have mentioned all of the particulars of two major markets, the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE) and the lesser known American Stock Exchange. But there is a third one too! It is called NASDAQ.Now what makes NASDAQ quite unique from the other two, is that this market is controlled by computers. Despite the technological advances of this stock market, NASDAQ still has the conventional bidding water of NYSE and American Stock Exchange. The buyers and sellers have their own areas to buy and sell stock, and bid through a quote system called Level II. The great thing with stock trading, is that in order to be successful with trading stocks, you do not have to be in the pit, bidding like a madman on the hunt for their lives. Not at all! You can now use the very computer in your house, or go to a trading office if you live in a big city and trade stocks. Many different internet based brokerages are out there, and have plenty of materials to get you started on your way to becoming a great stocktrader!
The caller seemed surprised that I had never heard about Compound Stock Earnings Programs, or CSEs. "People are earning three to six percent per month with little or no risk", she continued, "I'm thinking of attending a seminar". A wise man once said: "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is", but this sure is a creative euphemism for what has to be a rather complicated options strategy.The buyer of a "call" option obtains the right to purchase a specified quantity of a security from the seller of the option, at a stated "strike price", and at any time on or before the contract expiration date. When the option seller owns the security, it is called a "covered" call. The CSE hucksters don't deny that their magic cash flow system is based on selling "covered" call options, but the "come on" includes a laundry list of misinformation, partial truths, and inaccuracies about the stock market and investing. Covered calls have been around forever, but this is the first time I've seen them touted as safe investment vehicles. They are certainly the safest of a complex array of option strategies, but very few registered, certified, or well known and experienced investment gurus would ever use the word safe when discussing options--- or recommend them. All options are speculations, no matter how well sugar coated and no matter how fail-safe the trading system appears. The risk is in there.Options are bets about the future price movement of exchange-traded securities--- it's just that simple. The prospect of unusually high returns always signals unusually high risk. Caveat emptor, in spades. Here are some things to consider before you think about attending that free seminar--- not to mention the basic reality that equities are not at all the proper investment vehicle for an income-generating portfolio. That's what income securities are all about.The pitch begins with the accurate statement that most investment portfolios are chock full of equity mutual funds, and that such funds rarely produce enough income to pay the bills. Consequently, principal drainage occurs when mutual fund shares have to be sold during market downturns. But no mention is made of the fact that really low-risk, monthly-income, and easily traded alternatives (currently ranging upward from above 5% tax free and above 7.5% taxable) are readily available.The second CSE selling point laments the declining dividend yield on NYSE traded securities. Again, equities have never willingly accepted a job description that includes "provide monthly spending money to shareholders". The purpose of stock ownership is growth in the form of capital gains. When income becomes the purpose of the investment program, proper advice would be to sell the stocks and to buy monthly income producing securities.Actually, there has never been a time when common stock dividend yields were as high as some of the CSEs report in their propaganda, and historical growth rates of the Dow and S & P have always been calculated ex-dividend. Similarly, the glossies talk about the low yield on individual bonds and treasury securities as though these were the only alternatives an investor has, which they obviously are not. Based on website review alone, it's doubtful that the CSE marketing companies are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Even if we pretend that an equity portfolio's growth rate can be enhanced with a covered call strategy, let's look at the things the investor has to think about after he puts the option premium into his pocket. What if someone drops the ball (or if something really good happens over night) and the stock is actually called away? Think of the tax consequences of a gain on low cost-basis holdings, or the actual capital loss if you are writing the calls on stocks that have fallen in price, as you will certainly be doing during corrections.Additional drawbacks of the covered call program are: (a) limiting the amount of profit on a rising stock; (b) reducing portfolio liquidity and flexibility because the underlying securities cannot be sold unless the option has been bought back; (c) there can be up to four separate commissions paid in one completed transaction; (d) higher premiums are generally associated with higher price volatility and higher risk levels--- which is as it should be. Another possibility is that the call buyer might exercise his option early in order to capture the underlying stock's dividend, or because of take-over rumors.So as safe as the CSE promoters want you to believe the process is, there is a significant potential for both loss and inconvenience--- enough so that managed municipal, corporate, and government CEFs, REITs, preferred stocks, etc. look better and better and better for investors who need safe (actually safe) income. While you are thinking about Compound Stock Earnings Programs, consider this. Why aren't our dear friends on Wall Street pushing these programs or mass advertising this revelation? Why are option specialists the pariahs of most brokerage firm offices? Why are special risk acceptance forms required by brokerage firms to separately authorize the use of options? Why are options, commodities, futures, margin programs, and short selling way up there on most qualified investment adviser listings of inherently speculative financial products? Certainly, the CSE promoters have provided adequate documentation, instructional material, testimonials, and software to describe the workings of their covered call option programs. But in addition to the in-your-face hype, greed food, and numerous pages of disclaimers, can they show you the customer's yachts?
Smack, right up alongside the head. Your 401(k) investment program deteriorated rapidly as the stock market and the economy weakened. Who would have thought that there was so much risk of loss in those mutual funds, and ETFs? Fortunately, the pain is most often temporary, but the timing of the recovery could alter some participant retirement schedules and benefits--- not to mention the hefty confiscation level retirees can count on from Uncle Sam.The popularity of self-directed 401(k) benefit plans is understandable. Employees typically get an instant profit from generous employer matching contributions, a variety of investment products to choose from, and portability between jobs. But the benefit to employers is far greater--- an easy, low-cost, employee benefit plan with virtually no responsibility for the safety of the investments, and no lifetime commitment to benefit payments. In some instances though, employees are required to invest too large a portion of their account in company stock--- a situation that has caused major problems in the past (Enron, for example).401(k) plans have virtually replaced the private pension system, and in the process, have transferred total investment responsibility from trustee caliber professionals to hundreds of millions of investment amateurs. Employees get little professional guidance with regard to selecting an appropriate mix of investment vehicles from the glossies provided by 401(k) fund providers. Few Employee Benefit Department counselors have degrees (or hands-on experience) in economics, investing, or financial planning, and wind up using the "unbiased" counseling services of the funds' salespersons. How convenient for them. Interestingly, most salespersons also have no hands-on investment experience either--- go figure.Similarly, the financial planning and accounting communities seem to have little concern about such basic investment tenets as QDI (quality, diversification, and income). If they did, there would never be instances where individual investors lose everything in their one fund, one stock, or one-property investment programs. QDI is the fire insurance policy of the investment plan, but few 401(k) participants hear about anything beyond: past market value performance numbers, future performance projections, and the like. They are not generally aware of the risks inherent in their investment programs.This is where an understanding of investment grade value stock (IGVS) investing, the IGVSI and related market statistics becomes important to 401(k) participants, company benefit departments, accountants and other financial professionals. IGVS investing is just perfect for long-term, regular-deposit-commitment investment programs.Somehow, we've got to get 401(k) investors to understand the framework of an investment/retirement program and, then, we have to get participants and/or their professional advisors to look inside the products being offered. As much as I hate the idea of one-size-fits-all investment products, they are generally accepted as the best way to deal with larger employer 401(k) programs--- most employers don't even know that more personalized approaches exist.Only when some form of company, sector, or economy melt down occurs, does the head scratching (and the investigating) begin. 401(k) participants need to understand that they are not immune to the vagaries of market, economic, and interest rate cycles. Along with their employee benefit plan comes total responsibility for the long-term performance of the investment/retirement program. Are you in good hands?Historically, IGV stocks fluctuate enough (both in general and by sector) to allow for mutual fund and ETF investors to select the less risky offerings from among the 401(k) product menu at the most advantageous times--- but all individual investors need to learn how to identify the risks and to learn how to deal with them. Typically, 401(k) participants buy the higher priced, last-year-best-performing, and hot sector offerings while they sell or avoid the various products they feel have "under performed" the market. Nowhere else in their lives do they adopt such a perverse strategy. And nowhere else in their thinking would they blindly accept the premise that any one number represents what is, or should be, going on in their personal investment portfolios. Risk minimization begins with quality, is enhanced through diversification, and is compounded with realized income.The first two steps require research, greed control, and discipline. The income part just requires discipline, so it should be much easier to manage. If you cannot identify and understand the individual securities within an investment product, and assess the overall quality (economic viability and risk protection), don't invest in it. If you have more than 5% of your portfolio in any one individual security, or 15% in any one sector (industrial, geographical, social, political, etc.), make some changes. Since 401(k) plans are almost exclusively mutual fund shopping malls, it is difficult to assess the income or cash flow component of the risk minimization function. Product descriptions, or your benefits representative, should provide the answers. You can stay away from products that refuse to share the income with you, but the best way to benefit from a fund based benefit plan is to establish selling targets for the products you select. If your Blind Faith Fund Unit Value rises 10%, sell all or part of it and move the proceeds to another opportunity that is down 20%. Profit taking is the ultimate risk minimizer.So long as we are in an environment where retirement plan income (and principal in the case of all private plans) is subject to income taxation, 401(k) participants would be wise to establish an after tax income portfolio invested in tax exempt securities--- or to vote more selfishly.
I've been thinking about starting a stock market prediction business. Clearly, there is a huge market for timely and accurate information of this type, and just as clearly, predicting the future is much easier than dealing with the realities of whatever is actually happening at the moment. If investors could know what's going to happen next, they could develop a plan to deal with it in the present. Maybe Wall Street could help me get this new business up and running!What's that? Wall Street institutions already spend billions predicting future price movements of the stock market, individual issues & indices, commodities, and hemlines. Really? Is that right also? Economists have been analyzing and charting world economies for decades, showing clearly the repetitive cyclical changes and their upward bias. Funny then, or strange would be more accurate, that the advice generated by the oracles of Wall Street seems to assume that the current environment, good or bad, will be everlasting. Isn't it this kind of thinking and advising that prolongs the downturns and "bubbles" the advances---in all markets? If it were true that our favorite pinstriped product pushers can actually predict the future, why would investors do what they do in response to the predictions? Why would financial professionals of every shape and size holler: "sell" at lower prices, and "buy at any price" when market valuations surge upward? Shouldn't lower prices be the call to the mall? Most Wall Street soothsaying has a short-term focus that dwells upon today's market conditions; most Wall Street glossies emphasize the long-term nature of investment programs, and encourage investors to apply patience to the program they decide to use for goal achievement. Why is the advice so out of sinc?The reason for the emphasis confusion is simple: it's easier to play to the emotion of the moment than it is to look beyond--- even though we all know that a directional change will be along eventually. Regardless of the direction, Wall Street advice will always fuel the operative emotion: greed or fear! Wall Street's retail representatives never go against the grain of the consensus opinion--- particularly the one projected to them by their superiors. You cannot obtain independent thinking from a Wall Street salesperson; it doesn't fill up the "Beemer". Here's some global advice that you will not hear on the street of dreams: Sell into rallies. Buy on bad news. Buy slowly; sell quickly. Always sell too soon. Always buy too soon. And by the way, who do you think is buying and selling the securities you have been told to dump or to hoard? No self respecting guru would ever refute the basic truths that the market indices, individual issue prices, the economy, and interest rates will continue to move in both directions, unpredictably, forever. Hmmm, this is where you need to focus your attention if you want to get through the investment process with your sanity. You need to expect and plan for directional changes and learn to use them to your advantage. Tranquilizers may be necessary to get you through the first few cycles, but if you have minimized your risk properly, you can actually thrive on the long-term predictability of the markets. The risk of loss cannot be eliminated. A simple change in a security's market value is not a loss of principal just as certainly as a change in the market value of your home is not evidence of termite damage. Markets are complicated; emotions about one's assets are even more so. Cyclical changes in all markets are just as predictable conceptually as knowing approximately where you are within a cycle is knowable actually. The key is to understand what your securities are expected to do within the cyclical framework. Now there's a knowledge business with no Wall Street practitioners!Predicting individual stock prices is a totally different ball game that requires a more powerful crystal ball and an array of semi legal and illegal relationships that are unavailable to most investors. There are just too many variables. Prediction is impossible, but probability assessment has enormous potential. Investing in individual issues has to be done differently, with rules, guidelines, and judgment. It has to be done unemotionally and rationally, monitored regularly, and analyzed with performance evaluation tools that are portfolio specific.This is not nearly as difficult as it sounds, and if you are a shopper, looking for bargains elsewhere in your life, you should have no trouble understanding the workings of the stock market. There are only three decision-making scenarios that investors need to master if they want to predict long-term success for their portfolios. The "Buy" decision has two important steps: Step one allocates the available investment assets, by purpose, between Equity and Income securities, based on the goals of the investment program. It is done best using The Working Capital Model. Step two establishes strict selection quality measures and diversifies properly within each security class. Investment Grade Value Stocks are the low-risk equity champions; long-term, non-gimmick, managed CEFs produce the best income/diversification mix available in readily tradeable form.The "Sell" decision involves setting reasonable targets for profit taking for all securities in the portfolio. Loss taking decisions must not be undertaken out of fear, and must be avoided during severe market downturns. Understanding the forces causing market value shrinkage is important and a highly disciplined hand at the emotion control button is essential. There is no such thing as a good loss of capital.The "Hold" decision is most common, and it regulates and moderates the process, keeping it less than frantic. Continue to hold onto fundamentally strong equities and income securities that are providing their normal cash flow. Hold weaker positions until the appropriate cycle (market, interest, economy) changes direction, and then consider whether to sell or to buy more.Wall Street spins reality in whatever manner it can to make most investors unhappy, thus increasing new product sales. Your confusion, fear, greed, impatience, and need for a quick panacea fuels their profit engines, not yours. Learn how to deal unemotionally with Wall Street events and shun the herd mentality... that'll fix 'em.
Day trading the stock market involves the rapid buying and selling of stocks on a day-to-day basis. This technique is used to secure quick profits from the constant changes in stock values, minute to minute, second to second. It is rare that a day trader will remain in a trade over the course of a night into the next day. These trades are entered and exited in a matter of minutes. The main question that most people ask when it comes to day trading is simple: Is it necessary to sit at a computer watching the markets ALL day long in order to be a successful day trader?The answer is no. It's not necessary to sit at a computer all day long. There are a number of factors to consider, but generally the rule of day trading is to trade when everyone else is trading. In other words, trade in the morning.As with all financial investments, day trading is risky in fact, it's one of the riskiest forms of trading out there. The stock prices rise or fall according to the behavior of the market, which is entirely unpredictable. Day traders buy and sell shares rapidly in the hopes of gaining profits within the minutes and seconds they own those particular stocks. Simple to do in theory, harder to do in practice.If you are constrained by a small amount of capital, you may not be able to buy large amounts of a stock, but buying only a small amount can add to the risk of a loss. And, obviously, it is impossible to predict with certainty which stocks will result in profits and which in losses. Even the best of traders must learn to accept both outcomes. It's also important to know that in day trading, it is the number of shares rather than the value of shares that should be the focus. If you day trade, you WILL face losses, but even for the more expensive stocks, the loss should be marginal, because prices do not usually fluctuate to an extreme degree over the course of just one day.The day trading industry deals in a large variety of stocks and shares. Here are just a few:Growth-Buying Shares shares made from profit, which continue to grow in value. Eventually, these shares will begin to decline in price, and an experienced trader can usually predict the future of this type of share.Small Caps shares of companies which are on the rise and show no signs of stopping. Although these shares are generally cheap, they are a very risky investment for day traders. You'll be safer to go with large caps and/or mid-caps, which are much more secure and stable thanks to a premium.Unloved Stocks company stock that has not performed well in the past. Traders buy these shares in the hopes of generating profits if and when the stock rises in value. As with small caps, unloved stocks can be a risky choice for day traders.These examples are NOT your only options when it comes to day trading stocks. The best way to determine which type of stock is right for you is to invest some time for careful research, a knowledge of market patterns, a solid strategy, and a disciplined trading plan.The key to successful day trading is to be prepared. Know as much as possible about the industry before you begin actually trading. You need to learn to trade ONLY when the market gives the right signals, and ONLY when the volume of activity in the market supports a successful trading opportunity.
In the world of investments, you'll often hear about stocks and bonds. They are both feasible forms of investment. They allow you the opportunity to invest your money with a specific company or corporation with the possibility of future profits. But how exactly do they work? And what are the differences between the two?BondsLet's start with bonds. The easiest way to define a bond is through the concept of a loan. When you invest in bonds, you are essentially loaning your money to a company, corporation, or government of your choosing. That institution, in turn, will give you a receipt for your loan, along with a promise of interest, in the form of a bond.Bonds are bought and sold in the open market. Fluctuation in their values occurs depending on the interest rate of the general economy. Basically, the interest rate directly affects the worth of your investment. For instance, if you have a thousand dollar bond which pays the interest of 5% yearly, you can sell it at a higher face value provided the general interest rate is below 5%. And if the rate of interest rises above 5%, the bond, though it can still be sold, is usually sold at less than its face value. The logic behind this system is that the investors deal with a higher rate of interest then the actual bond pays. Thus, the bond is sold at lower value in order to offset the gap. The OTC market, which is comprised of banks and security firms, is the favourite trading place for bonds, because corporate bonds can be listed on the stock exchange, and can be purchased through stock brokers.With bonds, unlike stocks, you, as the investor, will not directly benefit from the success of the company or the amount of its profits. Instead, you will receive a fixed rate of return on your bond. Basically, this means that whether the company is wildly successful OR has an abysmal year of business, it will not affect your investment. Your bond return rate will be the same. Your return rate is the percentage of the original offer of the bond. This percentage is called the coupon rate. It is also important to remember that bonds have maturity dates. Once a bond hits its maturity date, the principal amount paid for that bond is returned to the investor. Different bonds are issued different maturity dates. Some bonds can have up to 30 years of maturity period.When dealing in bonds, the greatest investment risk that you face is the possibility of the principal investment amount NOT being paid back to you. Obviously, this risk can be somewhat controlled through the careful assessment of the companies or institutions that you choose to invest in. Those companies that possess more credit worthiness are generally safer investments when it comes to bonds. The best example of a safe bond is the government bond. Another is the blue chip company bond. Blue chip companies are well-established companies that have proven and successful track records over a long span of time. Of course, such companies will have lower coupon rates. If you're willing to take a greater risk for better coupon rates, then you would probably end up choosing the companies with low credit ratings, companies that are unproven or unstable. Keep in mind, there is a great risk of default on the bonds from smaller corporations; however, the other side of the coin is that bond holders of such companies are preferential creditors. They get compensated before the stock holders in the event of a business going bankrupt.So, for less risk, choose to invest in bonds from established companies. You will be likely to cash in on your returns, but they will probably not be very large. Or, you can choose to invest in smaller, unproven companies. The risk is greater, but if it pays off, your bank account will be greater, too. As in any investment venture, there is a trade-off between the risks and the possible rewards of bonds.StocksStocks represent shares of a company. These shares give part of the ownership of the company to you, the share-holder. Your stake in that company is defined by the amount of shares that you, the investor, own. Stock comes in mid-caps, small caps, and large caps.As with bonds, you can decrease the risk of stock trading by choosing your stocks carefully, assessing your investments and weighing the risk of different companies. Obviously, an entrenched and well-known corporation is much more likely to be stable then a new and unproven one. And the stock will reflect the stability of the companies.Stocks, unlike bonds, fluctuate in value and are traded in the stock market. Their worth is based directly on the performance of the company. If the company is doing well, growing, and attaining profits, then so does the value of the stock. If the company is weakening or failing, the stock of that company decreases in value.There are various ways in which stocks are traded. In addition to being traded as shares of a company, stock can also be traded in the form of options, which is a type of Futures trading. Stock can also be sold and brought in the stock market on a daily basis. The value of a certain stock can increase and decrease according to the rise and fall in the stock market. Because of this, investing in stocks is much riskier than investing in bonds. The Wrap-UpBoth stocks and bonds can become profitable investments. But it is important to remember that both options also carry a certain amount of risk. Being aware of that risk and taking steps to minimize it and control it, not the other way around, will help you to make the right choices when it comes to your financial decisions. The key to wise investing is always good research, a solid strategy, and guidance you can trust.